Maybe Next Year

I really wanted to pick the Mariners to win the AL West. I live in Seattle now, the idea of heading downtown to the playoffs to watch Erik Bedard or King Felix face off with some AL foe in October baseball is an appetizing thought. Sadly, when presented with the facts I just couldn't make the jump.The M's played above their heads throughout last year, probably outperforming even how they would have projected the season themselves. Yet, 88 wins is nothing to sneeze at and after that they added one of the American League's best pitchers in Bedard. The 1, 2 punch of Bedard and Hernandez, with elite closer J.J. Putz at the back of the bullpen, had me dreaming of the possibility that the M's might take down the Angels to win the crown in the West. This dream will certainly continue throughout the season, but for the purpose of this post I just can't predict it. After the three players listed above, and the perennially amazing Ichiro, the team is simply full of holes. There are plenty of players who might play well this year, but few that can be counted on to perform at a high level.

The Angels on the other hand, while you might not consider any part of their team the best in the League, bring together a strong rotation, bullpen and lineup to create a balanced attack that will probably net them another trip to the playoffs.

Perhaps this offseason, combined with last, will hurt the team in years to come, as the unwise deals with aging OF coming off career years comes back to bite them, but this year that shouldn't factor in, and they'll probably even get some bang out of their buck for a bit.

So, this year I regret to say that my prediction for the AL West Division Champs is not my hometown M's, but instead the geographically confused Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
East: New York Mets
Central: Chicago Cubs
West: Arizona Diamondbacks

AMERICAN LEAGUE
East: Boston Red Sox
Central: Cleveland Indians
West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Pick(s)

Scott has challenged me to make a public declaration of picks so we can laugh at each other's futility as the baseball season unfolds. I'm more than happy to accommodate. I am also in the beautiful position of going second and responding to his picks. This will allow me to make some risky choices and still feel good about them because I have the excuse of "we can't make every pick the same."

I am going to make picks by league and avoid the wildcard predictions (Scott got that move very right). I'm also going to throw in a couple of sleeper picks, not necessarily teams that might challenge for playoff spots, but teams that will outperform expectations. Without further ado:
American League

Boston Red Sox - I know Scott went with this one too, but for me it came down to bullpens. I think the Yankees have the better line-up (especially with Matsui at DH full time and Cabrera playing everyday), and the starting pitching is relatively even (I have more faith in Hughes and Kennedy). So it comes down to bullpen and the Yankees didn't do enough to improve their lot.

Detroit Tigers - This is one that I'm a little worried about. I have a lot of faith in Jim Leyland to keep the ship running smoothly no matter the personnel, but I also recognize that Dontrelle Willis is going to be a huge bust in the AL. That being said, I like their rotation a lot (Cleveland's peaked, as a whole, last year) and the bullpen upgrades are just what the doctor ordered.

Anaheim Angels - I love the manager and the owner and the vibe this team has created in Anaheim. They have talent and focus, but they don't get too worked up about it. The pitching will only improve over last season and they've added a few much needed bats to the line-up. That being said, this team also has the biggest chance of imploding, not because of a lack of talent, but just because sometimes things don't work out in baseball. The Angles give off that vibe for me.

AL Sleepers - The Oakland Athletics have a stealthly good team this year. Billy Beane will tell you that the Haren trade was an attempt to reload for 2009, but this team could put things together and if the Angels slip, don't be surprised if this squad is in the hunt. I also think the Tampa Bay Devil Rays will surprise some people. They won't be in the hunt for the playoffs, but they may just steal third place in the AL East. The rotation is legit, if young, and we saw last year than the line-up has fire power.

National League

Philadelphia Phillies - The Mets are the sexy (and probably smart) pick. They have Santana now, who will no doubt break all sorts of records this year. The rest of the starters are all a little suspect to me. They all have the chance to be very, very good, but they also have the chance to stink. The Phillies have some young guns ready to prove themselves and a line-up that thrives on coming from behind. They're just built to repeat the September soul-crushing they laid on the Mets last season.

Chicago Cubs - I really wanted to pick another team in this division to win, but the rest of the squads are just sad. The Cubs proved last year that they could win the division even when they played poorly and their competition has gotten worse. I doubt they'll make many waves in the playoffs, but they should be there without much trouble. They may even be fun to watch for a change.

San Diego Padres - I feel a bit like a cheater here. Scott asked me a week or so ago who he should pick in the NL West and I said, "Arizona, hands down." They acquired Dan Haren to give them among the strongest pitching staffs in baseball and they were coming off a division win and a tough race to boot. However, the line-up has always been a bit suspect. Could they get lucky and win the division while being outscored two years in a row? The Padres have an almost equally good rotation and a much better line-up. My only complaint will be that now Peavy and Haren will face off a gazillion times a year and I have both on my fantasy team.

NL Sleepers - I only have one pick here. I expect most every team in NL will do about what everyone expects them to do, with one exception: the Pittsburgh Pirates. I know, I know, this team has been the bottom of the barrel for a while now, but check out the roster. They have talented pitchers and solid (although mediocre) hitters; they play in the most god-awful division in baseball and have nothing to lose. I don't think they'll challenge for the playoffs, but don't be surprised when they finish ahead of a couple teams.

Back to the Future

Well, as you'll have noticed from the last post, there's a new contributor in town. I'm glad to have Ryan's thoughts included here. I am sure there will be plenty of situations where we wholeheartedly agree, such is the case with his first post on Pettitte. I also look forward to the instances where we disagree and can counter one another's posts with a post of our own.

As I continue to make my predictions for the upcoming season it is probably important now that Ryan is present to point out that these are opinions are entirely my own, that way if they turn out to be a disaster there is no egg on Ryan's face. Although if he's in the business of humiliation perhaps he'll make some picks of his own as well.

I've had a dilemma as I've pondered who I would pick to win the American League Central Division. I know the Tigers are the sexy pick right now, but I'm not sure I buy into it yet. The Cabrera trade was a big one, no doubt about that. He'll provide a remarkable amount of offense next year. The Renteria deal is a big one as well. I still just don't know if they'll score thousands of runs the way some analysts seem to be imagining. Perhaps they're as good, but are they really better than the recent Yankees lineups? Are they really as scary as the 2004 Sox lineup?

Cabrera is a sure bet barring injury. Renteria will offer solid production as long as he doesn't revert to Fenway form (although as he comes back to the American League are we sure that won't happen?). Mags will be solid, but will he really duplicate last years numbers? Let's say all three of those players play up to potential. After those three we have to expect Sheffield to stay healthy all year for the first time in what seems like a decade, we need Pudge to keep from aging for yet another year at the game's most demanding position... this lineup does have a lot of depth, but it has more question marks than people are letting on.

There is also the question of pitching. Once you get past Verlander there are question marks there too. Bonderman and Robertson still need to prove themselves to be consistent from year to year. And don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to see Dontrelle get it back together, he is easily one of the most likable personalities in sports, but you can't bet on a guy who has struggled of late to get it in gear by making the dreaded NL to AL switch.

Normally I would point out the wisdom in picking a team with a possible powerhouse for an offense and a fairly suspect rotation to win the division because history shows us that more often than not offense wins divisions, pitching wins championships; why do you think the Yankees can dominate a division only to lose in the first round of the playoffs (this is also why they charged back last year and almost won a division after spending two months early in the season throwing High A and Double A pitching against the likes of the American League East). However, that rule only works when your offense has significant strengths that the divisions other contenders don't have. Last time I checked the Indians still feature a lineup that includes Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, and Travis Hafner. Sizemore is great as it is, and at any moment he could break out and cash in on all that potential, becoming a perennial MVP candidate (if you don't believe me, just ask Peter Gammons).

Then, while Cleveland can at least compete with Detroit's offense, I'd give them the advantage in pitching. It's tough to write off a 1,2 punch like Sabathia and Carmona next year.

Anyway, all that to say that, while this is certainly the pick thus far most likely to come around and bite me in the ass, I'm picking the Indians to win the division again. Call me crazy, or wait in the weeds to mock me when the Tigers run away with it all, but this is my pick.


NATIONAL LEAGUE
East: New York Mets
Central: Chicago Cubs
West: Arizona Diamondbacks

AMERICAN LEAGUE
East: Boston Red Sox
Central: Cleveland Indians

The Fine Line of HGH

Well, I am a new contributor to The Holy Diamond. I have to give Scott a measure of thanks for allowing me to express my baseball related thoughts here, in the most appropriate of venues.

I've spent some time listening to the press conference held by Andy Pettitte at Yankees' Spring Training yesterday regarding his past use of HGH and his Congressional testimony. For those who aren't hip to the news, Pettitte is a pitcher who has been mentored by one of the all-time greats, Roger Clemens. Clemens has come under so intense scrutiny recently over alleged use of Human Growth Hormone (HGH) and steroids to prolong his floundering career in the late 90's and early 00's.

Clemens has adamantly denied the allegations, but he, along with Pettitte and some others were called before Congress to testify under oath. During his interview, Pettitte admitted to a limited HGH use in an attempt to recover from an injury. Pettitte had been told by Clemens that he also used HGH. Years later, when steroids became a big issue, Pettitte asked Clemens what he would say if anyone asked about steroids. According to Pettitte, Clemens denied ever having told Pettitte that he used banned substances.

Essentially, Pettitte made a sworn statement that, while not implicating Clemens, doesn't make him look so good. Now there is this "debate" about whether Pettitte should have spoken out. Apparently baseball's unwritten players "code" precludes speaking about the indiscretions of other players. Pettitte has defended himself by saying that he would not lie under oath.

Andy Pettitte has long been my favorite living player. He's been a bastion of morality and an outstanding individual throughout his career. For this reason I was upset to hear that he stooped to this level, even if it was a one time mistake. There is really no excuse for succumbing to this kind of pressure other than the age old defense of human nature.

Pettitte has chosen not to take the easy way out. He has not hid behind lies and excuses in an attempt to shade his guilt. I greatly respect his choice to speak the truth, one that could not have been easy and may come at a great price. He, among so few, has stood up for integrity when society decries the virtues of its heroes.

There is no way to know exactly how Clemens will respond. Pettitte stated his wish that the friendship would continue, but past action leads me to believe Clemens won't respond in kind. It's a tragic scenario when one must choose between integrity and friendship. I am only consoled by the notion that a true friend would understand the tension inherent in the decision and be strong enough to walk through it together.

This is a difficult issue to consider. On the one hand, I would rather celebrate all those professional athletes who have had the integrity to avoid banned substances entirely. On the other, I want to honor one flawed man who has had the courage to stand up for what's right, even if he failed the same test once before. Which is the more difficult challenge? I pray I will never know, but also for the strength to do as Andy Pettitte has done when I inevitably find out.

A New Empire?

If anyone is actually paying attention they may wonder why I am making the jump from the NL to the AL without making a pick for the Wild Card. The reason for this is mostly that as futile as it is to make picks in general, Wild Card picks are a completely different level of futility... at least in the NL (the AL has traditionally made it easier because most just pick whoever they didn't pick to win the AL East, but that won't necessarily work this year). So, I am putting off the Wild Card picks until last, perhaps I'll just give a rundown of the major contenders for the race instead, we'll see.

So, while I put off the hardest picks I will instead make what is the easiest pick in my opinion: The American League East. This is both the division I've given the least thought, as well as the one I most hope to be wrong about as I pick the Boston Red Sox to start a streak of their own a year after ending the Yankees consecutive division title streak.

A team deserves respect after winning the World Series. The Red Sox are the Champs until someone can knock them off, and with a pool of young players among their core who might just play at a higher level this year than they did last year there's no reason to pick against the boys from Fenway.

Granted, they only won the division by 2 games last year, which wouldn't have been enough if it weren't for the Yankees struggles to find a pitcher with an unprecedented rash of injuries early on. But the bottom line is that the Sox did what they needed to do to win, and the Red Sox have made a habit of doing that while winning two World Series Championships in four years.

There are certainly some question marks with youth at key positions in the rotation as well as the reality that Josh Beckett has to defy odds to put up another season as statistically impressive as last year. I didn't list Schilling's injury as a factor because I don't think it will weigh too heavily when all is said and done. Yet, while these questions are legitimate the Yankees and Blue Jays have even more question marks; with the Yankees relying entirely on mostly untested youth in their rotation and the Jays needing to prove themselves as a serious threat before they can be seen as such.

So, while I hope to be wrong, I pick the Sox to win the AL East.




NATIONAL LEAGUE
East: New York Mets
Central: Chicago Cubs
West: Arizona Diamondbacks

AMERICAN LEAGUE
East: Boston Red Sox

Snake Bitten

As this series of prediction posts continues the next division on tap is the National League West. This is a pretty remarkable division in that it wasn't long ago that this division was the joke of the Majors, the National League Worst. Yet the teams of the West have been developing talent, making sound baseball decisions, and within the next few years could become a standard setting division in baseball. With the powerhouse rotations in Arizona and San Diego, the remarkable line-up in Colorado, and the potential for growth for the Dodgers under Joe Torre things are looking up for the boys out West. I don't mention the Giants in that conversation because in spite of some promising young pitching they'll be in a rebuilding phase for a bit.

All the information listed above leads to some trouble on my part deciding who my pick is to win the division. There are plenty of variables involved, like the health of Mark Prior, the potential for the D-Backs to struggle offensively again this year, or the strange magic out in Denver last year. Yet when I look at the division it seems the Diamondbacks make the most sense. They won the division last year by the thinnest of margins, .5 game ahead of the Rockies and 1.5 games ahead of the Padres, and this year they'll be adding Dan Haren to their rotation to work with Brandon Webb. The potential for Haren this year is remarkable considering his brilliance in the AL and the normal bump in production for pitchers when they switch to the senior circuit. That, coupled with the expected progression of the youthful bats in the lineup such as OF Chris Young, point to a strong chance the Diamondbacks can build on their surprising division win last year.


Now, I certainly don't make that pick with a ton of confidence. I don't expect the Diamondbacks to run away with the division as my friend Ryan does. While the Diamondbacks have brilliant pitching lets not forget the Jake Peavy/Chris Young (no relation) combo pitching over at Petco. And if Chris Prior can defy the odds and stay healthy it could be the Padres running away with the division as Adrian Gonzalez provides more than enough offense to win with that 1,2,3 punch. Yet I'm not about to make my pick relying on the health of Mark Prior, although it could happen, stranger things certainly have.

So, the picks thus far are:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
East: New York Mets
Central: Chicago Cubs
West: Arizona Diamondbacks

Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

There isn't much distance between the Cubs and the Brewers in terms of geographic location, they are separated by a mere 90 mile drive along I-94. Come October, the same could be the case when you take a look at each team's regular season performance.

Last year I predicted the Cubs to win the division, and they did so, but not before making it seem virtually impossible by under-performing offensively for much of the season, as well as taking quite a while to discover themselves as a team. The Brewers are an exciting young team that impressed last year and could only get better, having given the Cubs more than a run for their money by leading the division for much of the year before fading late.

Both teams look poised to return in 2008 with another strong season, and if Homer Bailey progresses the way he might the Reds could be players in the picture as well. And I suppose Tejada could make a difference on the Astros, but I wouldn't say its likely.

All this points to what could be another exciting year in an up and coming division. About all we know for sure is that the Pirates will almost definitely finish in last place barring mass injury or death striking another team in the division.

My pick is going to be a repeat from last year, as I'm going with the Chicago Cubs. It wasn't an easy decision for me, but I think Zambrano will show improvement over last year and the offense will perform more like I expected it to throughout last season. It just seems to me that there are too many big bats in that lineup, in the friendly confines of Wrigley, to not rebound from their lackluster performance last season. And as much as I love Prince Fielder, I'll need to see more consistency from Rickie Weeks before I feel that lineup can challenge the likes of Soriano, Ramirez, and Lee down the interstate. Not to mention the huge injury risk the Brewers need to deal with in the form of Ben Sheets, as well as the question as to whether Eric Gagne can find healing for his shattered psyche after doing everything within his power to keep the Red Sox from winning the World Series last season.

So, my pick is for the Cubs to raise another division flag, giving themselves yet another chance to sink or swim in the playoffs.


So, for those keeping track at home, my picks thus far are:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
East: New York Mets
Central: Chicago Cubs

You Can Never Hold Back Spring

Here it comes folks. Spring Training is almost here, and right behind it the regular season in all its glory. It's time for another season of the surprising, such as the Rockies remarkable surge and the Mets epic collapse, and the not so surprising such as strong seasons by the Red Sox and Angels.

Basically, attempting to predict what will happen throughout a baseball season is futile, pointless, impossible, and practically guarantees humiliation for anyone who tries. With that in mind, I'm going to use the next few posts to make my predictions division by division, and then anyone who reads this blog can rub it in my face if I pick against your team and I turn out to be woefully wrong.

To start off I'll begin with the National League East.

After the Santana trade, which was a remarkable coup for the Mets when they were able to cash in on the way the Twins woefully overplayed their hand in negotiations with the Yankees and Red Sox, I'm going to have to go with the Mets to win the division. No surprise here, I suppose the vast majority of analysts will pick the Mets, but the outcome is far from a foregone conclusion.


While one would be crazy to look at the prospect of Santana in the National League as good news for anyone but the Mets, there are plenty of concerns for Mets fans who have to be feeling some paranoia after last year. For example, there is the reality that the Mets' scary lineup has several key pieces who are only getting older (Delgado, Alou, Castillo), and the Phillies have a young lineup that's only getting better. However, when it comes down to it, guys like Reyes, Wright and Beltran will be able to provide enough offense to win in the NL with a rotation that has Santana and Pedro (who can still win in the National League when healthy) at the top.
They were almost able to do it last year and that was before replacing a quickly deteriorating Tom Glavine with the best pitcher in baseball, period.

So, while the Phillies should have a say in how things go down, my first pick of the 2008 Season is for the New York Mets to bring some healing to Queens after last season 's debacle and head to the playoffs as Division Champs.